Tag: Multiple Posts

Climate Science for Fantasy Writers. Part II: Tolkien’s Prevailing Winds

J. R. R. Tolkien is the type specimen for good worldbuilding. He used his expertise in linguistics and medieval poetry to invent new languages, then built a world around those languages, then wrote stories in that world. I have always loved Tolkien and so he should have a place in my discussions of world building. Unfortunately, Middle Earth does not fit the criteria I established in Part I. It does have an atmosphere, but it is not a sphere. The sun and moon are a fruit and a flower from the two trees that sail in ships across the sky. This is not a place where we would expect normal climate science to apply. But the resulting climate ends up mostly making sense. If you understand enough about a few subjects, you often end up inadvertently learning some information about other subjects as well.

Climate Science for Fantasy Writers. Part I: A Sphere with an Atmosphere

Fantasy writers often want to make their worlds realistic. Making your world realistic draws readers in more easily and more clearly defines challenges your characters will face and solutions they might use to overcome these challenges. Realism is especially important in historically inspired fantasy because “Popular culture is often how we, collectively, wrestle with these issues [history or organization of other cultures], so it is worthwhile to ask how much truth and meaning there is in it, and what that means for our discourse.” I am not a historian, so I will leave historical advice to other people. But I can help you with climate realism. How can you make the climate of your world more realistic?

Generating Electricity without Fossil Fuels. Part IV: Comparisons and Policy Recommendations

How should we generate electricity?

Last post, we described a simple model of an economy that uses 100 GW of electricity. The economy was assumed to initially be predominantly fossil fuels. We got order of magnitude estimates for various scenarios of how to transition from fossil fuels to either solar / wind or natural gas.

This post directly compares the results from last post. It concludes with my own opinion of which strategy we should pursue.

For this model, I will state numbers for both the 100 GW model economy and numbers for a 500 GW economy – about the size of the US.

Generating Electricity without Fossil Fuels. Part III: A Simple Model

How should we generate electricity?

Last post, we discussed the various power sources from the perspective of the grid and briefly discussed energy storage. This post will put together the results of Parts I & II in a simple model to test different strategies for moving away from using fossil fuels to generate our electricity.

The simplifications in the model will make the transition away from fossil fuels look easier than it is. But they should be a fair comparison between the different strategies we might use.

Generating Electricity without Fossil Fuels. Part I: Overview of Alternative Power Sources

How should we generate electricity?

Currently, the majority of our electricity comes from fossil fuels, especially coal and natural gas. Burning fossil fuels has given us access to tremendous amounts of energy and has made modern civilization possible. Without them, we would have had trouble feeding ourselves, let alone obtaining our current standard of living.

Unfortunately, burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases that warm the global climate. And they will run out eventually. What other sources are available?

What is Chaos? Part VIII: Periodic Orbit Theory

This is the final post for my explanation of chaos theory to a popular audience. When the motion is chaotic, it is impossible to make long time predictions for a particular trajectory, but it is possible to make long time statistical predictions. I hope to explain the basic ideas of how we can calculate these long time averages for a strange attractor.

What is Chaos? Part VII: Partitions and Symbols

This is Part VII of our now eight part series on chaos. The final goal is in sight: since we cannot make predictions for a single trajectory if there’s chaos, we should try to make statistical predictions instead. We cannot even approach this less ambitious goal directly. Instead, we first divide the space the chaos moves through into qualitatively different regions, each of which is labeled by some symbol. We then record the motion as a list of symbols of the regions it goes through. Doing this allows us to finally get a good definition of ‘chaos’: motion where the number of qualitatively different behaviors increases exponentially in time. The ‘topological entropy’ helps us make that definition more precise. Next week we will finally reach our goal.

What is Chaos? Part VI: Stretch and Fold

The next part of my seven part explanation of chaos theory to a popular audience. Chaos is a mechanism that allows deterministic objects to behave unpredictably. I will explain why this happens and what kinds of predictions we can make when something is chaotic. So far, we have discussed mostly phenomenology. I would present some model – either physical or mathematical – and then describe its behavior. Now, instead of just describing the behavior, it’s time to understand how this behavior arises. What is the basic mechanism creating the strange behavior of chaotic systems? Why do some systems exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions? How can similar initial conditions rapidly become dramatically different, without everything flying apart? By now you should have seen that these sorts of behavior do happen. But how do they happen? The underlying mechanism is the title of this section: stretch and fold.

What is Chaos? Part V: Continuous Time

The next part of my seven part explanation of chaos theory to a popular audience. Chaos is a mechanism that allows deterministic objects to behave unpredictably. I will explain why this happens and what kinds of predictions we can make when something is chaotic. So far, we have focused on systems that change in discrete time. Part V is about how to describe something that moves chaotically in continuous time.

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